Business confidence is slowing
Business activity in the Euro area is still high but growth is already slowing and may remain low for the rest of the year. Worries about the outlook are rising due to the combination of high inflation, geopolitical uncertainties and monetary tightening.
Investment maybe slowing down
€128.1bn was invested in Europe in H1 2022, which represents a +8% increase vs H1 2021. This is the second best result for a Q1 after Q1 2020. The main markets started to slow in Q2 2022 though, hit by a combination of geopolitical uncertainties and in particular economic troubles.
Office: a solid H1 for letting activity
5,6 million sqm was taken-up in H1 2022 in Europe’s 25 main markets, sharply increasing compared to the same period last year (+41%). Most of markets surpassed long-term H1 average driven by a strong post-crisis demand.
First signs of slowdown in European logistics
Market fundamentals remain healthy underpinned by steady demand led by e-commerce. Low vacancy rates and limited land availability contribute to rental growth. Investment is setting a new record maintaining strong share on other assets but there are some signs of slowing down. The rise of government bond yields and inflation resulted in yield decompression in some markets. Further decompression is expected in Q3.
Retail investment picks up in H1 2022
Retail investment saw a significant increase over the past 12 months, due to recovery in the occupational base. Investment volumes in H1 2022 are the highest in three years. Footfall has improved in every European city, and many retailers reported an increase in their turnover. However, implication of inflation for lower consumer spend suggests investors may show restraint over the rest of 2022.
Residential: Transaction volume is slowing down
The increase in mortgage rates is starting to slow down transaction volume. However, house prices continue to rise (+10.4% vs Q1 2021) driven by high saving rates negative real interest rates and the shift in housing demand. Rental values growth is accelerating due to the worsening of the affordability and the drop in supply as health restriction eased. Finally, residential assets continue to attract investors but players could change as mortgage rates will continue to rise.