Île-de-France offices and investment in France: Q4 2018 figures and outlook
Over the full year 2018, office take-up in Île-de-France came to 2,504,000 m², down 5% over one year but still well above the 10-year average (2,283,000 m²). “The large unit segment (over 5,000 m²) has fallen by 13% and is around 982,000 m² across 81 transactions. This fall mainly stems from a lower number of deals for over 20,000 m²“ indicates Éric Siesse, Deputy General Manager in charge of office letting in Île-de-France for BNP Paribas Real Estate Transaction France. Meanwhile, “the market for small and medium-sized units (less than 5,000 m²) has stabilised at a particularly high level, once again exceeding 1.5 million m². These overall strong figures are in line with the healthy level of requests recorded by our sales teams” adds Éric Siesse.
The supply of offices under construction has jumped to 1.5 million m² as of January 1, 2019 (+25 % over one year). Most of the completions will be in Paris Inner City in 2019 and in the Inner Rim in 2020. “However, the tightly controlled vacancy rates, at a historical low, combined with the high level of pre-letting and uptick in requests means we can rule out any risk of oversupply in the medium term for most of the office districts in Ile-de-France” estimates Eric Siesse.
Investment in commercial real estate in France reached a historical level of € 32.5bn over the full year 2018 (+19% over one year). Once again, there was an end-of-year rally with more than € 13bn invested over the last quarter alone. Although all asset types are affected by this trend, offices stand out with some € 23bn invested over the year. The abundance of liquidity, good fundamentals of the rental market and continued low bond yields are behind this outstanding investment performance”, explains Olivier Ambrosiali, Deputy General Manager in charge of the sales division of BNP Paribas Real Estate Transaction France. In Q4 2018, “the prime office yield changed very little, still standing at 3.0 % in Paris CBD whereas it has narrowed significantly for logistics assets (4.5 %) and high street retail (2.5%)”, adds Olivier Ambrosiali.