The emergency of Covid-19 at the beginning of 2020 took the world by surprise (delivering a shock), just as the global economy had begun to stabilize from trade wars in the preceding years.
Europe: new centre of the epidemic
Around 8 000 new cases are reported each day in Europe. All the main economies in Europe have a growth rate around 30% per day
Disruption of supply chain & labour force
The confinement measures adopted in many countries disrupt global value chains and reduce the supply of labour.
This shock will push the global economy into a recession. We are not expecting an immediate and steep recovery as the shock has been staggered.
Fiscal and monetary responses
Central banks and governments have put in place policies in order to support the global economy. The length of contraction in economic activity is likely to be shorter than during the last crises.
Governments have also put in place some sanitary measures to mitigate the spread of the virus, with for example: the closure of schools, lockdown of population, etc.