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Europe CRE 360 - October 2020

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Lockdown 2.0 and vague recovery

As most countries across Europe witness a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, many are now instituting new restrictive measures. If we are still forecasting a rebound of the global GDP growth in 2021, risks remain, however, skewed to the downside.
 

Strong shock on foreign investment

Foreign investment experienced a bigger shock than domestic investment, particularly from Americas, Middle East, Asia Pacific while European investment showed more resilience. This benefited domestic investment that showed more resilience.
 

The retail industry holds its breath

After a summer favourable for consumption’s recovery, the retail industry is now depending on the outcome of the second wave. Another slowdown is already happening and tougher measures may accelerate the decline of traffic in retail outlets.
 

Office take-up deeply impacted

Office take-up in Europe reached its lowest 9-month total since 2009 (-42% y-o-y). In a context of climbing vacancy and declining net absorption in most markets, prime headline rents remained stable with upward pressure on incentives though.
 

A logistics market remarkably resilient

Unlike during the 2009 GFC, occupier market fundamentals are healthy with low vacant space and strong demand boosted by Ecommerce. Investment declined in Q2 but bounced back in Q3 and yields compressed further; investor appetite is not fading.